Operators are navigating a tale of two diners: the value-seeker and the experience-driven loyalist. This is leading to very different strategies across the board, and the winners are the ones who know exactly which guest they’re building for.

The Value-First Crowd – Weaker SSS Performance
McDonald’s, Burger King (RBI), and Wendy’s are all doubling down on affordability. Think bundled deals, limited-time discounts, and aggressive value messaging. These brands are laser-focused on retaining low- to middle-income guests who are trading down or visiting less often. Their playbook is all about keeping the doors open to price-sensitive customers without completely sacrificing margin.

The Experience Builders – Stronger SSS Performance
CAVA, Texas Roadhouse, and The Cheesecake Factory are going the other way — investing in throughput, hospitality, and fresh menu ideas. They’re banking on a more resilient premium guest who’s still willing to dine out if the value is clear, even at a higher price point. These brands are focused on long-term loyalty and market share, not chasing short-term foot traffic.

Holding the Line & Winning on Consistency
Interestingly, some of the strongest performers are those that aren’t using aggressive discounting — instead, they’re focused on delivering consistency, keeping prices stable, and expanding their footprint smartly. These brands understand that value isn’t always about lower prices — it’s about reliable service, quality, and the overall guest experience.

• Traffic recovery expected in H2 as economic conditions stabilize.
• Strategic investments in supply chain, digital ordering, and menu development will remain top priorities.
• Brands embracing agility, customer loyalty, and margin control are best positioned for sustained growth.

• NRA: Economic Indicators – Same-store sales and customer traffic – Link
• 8 restaurant trends to watch in 2025 – Link
• Chipotle’s Comparable Sales Dropped Year Over Year… – Link
• Toast Data: Reservation trends shift to slower days and early dinners – Link
• WSJ – Are value meals worth it for restaurants? – Link

Week Ending | 4/30/2025

The last 30-day performance had an average of 0.9% for the Top 10.

The top 10 is made up of mostly Franchisor entities, which have higher multiples than company owned concepts. Consensus revenue growth forecasts estimate ~12.5% growth into 2025. The growth guidance is attributable to store growth and price increases.

Restaurant businesses are generally valued on multiples of their revenue or EBITDA, depending on their capital structure, growth potential, and franchise model. For example, a McDonald’s franchise has a higher revenue multiple than a company-owned restaurant chain like Shake Shack.
Here are some of the factors that affect restaurant valuation multiples:

• Capital structure: Businesses with less debt and more equity tend to have higher valuation multiples.
• Growth potential: Businesses with high growth potential tend to have higher valuation multiples.
• Franchise model: Franchise businesses tend to have higher valuation multiples than company-owned
  businesses.